Decision Support Tool to Predict Panicle Initiation in Aerobic Rice

Aerobic rice cultivation offers the potential to reduce irrigated water use. A multitude of challenges, such as cold sterility, drought stress, and labor shortages, limit its adoption in temperate rice-growing regions. Increasing duration extent soil moisture tension between irrigation events has been demonstrated slow crop development. Delaying panicle initiation (PI) beyond optimal window can expose nighttime temperatures during sensitive early pollen microspore, severely reducing yield. Tools assist Australian farmers researchers management aerobic ensure PI occurs do not yet exist. Using data collected from an experiment conducted Australia 2020–2021 2021–2022, a predictive model was built forecasting based on timing irrigation. Estimation area hourly basis cumulative evapotranspiration with rainfall subtracted pre-emergent PI, defined deficit integral, used account for frequency, duration, events. The relationship integral number days (R2 = 0.91) build predict root mean square error 1.8 validating set. Furthermore, example is provided how be decision support tool growers schedule timely manner. This will increase likelihood high-yielding may enhance water-saving cultivation.